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Steel Consumption Will Enter The Off-season, Steel Prices In The Market May Be At A High Level
- Nov 08, 2018 -

On November 7, the China Iron and Steel Association said that in October, affected by the country's steady growth policy measures, the market is expected to rise, and the release of steel production capacity remains at a high level, driving demand for iron ore and rising prices. In the later period, the market will soon enter the off-season of steel consumption, steel production will decrease, iron ore demand intensity will decline, and prices will not continue to rise, and will fluctuate slightly.


According to China Steel Association, at the end of October, China's iron ore price index (CIOPI) was 272.14 points, up 22.25 points month on month, or 8.90%, up 5.43 percentage points from the previous month.


Steel production began to decline. According to the statistics of the Iron and Steel Association, in the first half of October, member steel enterprises averaged 1,798,300 tons of crude steel per day, and estimated that the country's daily production of crude steel was 2.5082 million tons, down 7.13% from September; the estimated daily production of iron was 2.033 million tons, compared with 9 The month fell by 8.12%. Affected by the decline in steel production, the demand for iron ore has also decreased.


Inventory. According to the China Steel Association, at the end of October, the inventory of imported iron ore ports nationwide was 145 million tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous month, an increase of 0.01%; but the year-on-year increase was 9.24 million tons, an increase of 6.80%, still at a relatively high level. In September, the national pig iron output was 66.38 million tons, down 0.42% from the previous month; while the iron ore import volume was 93.47 million tons, up 4.61% from the previous month. Overall, the oversupply situation in the iron ore market has not changed.


From the perspective of steel price trends, supply pressure is relatively high due to relatively stable demand. According to the Iron and Steel Association, at the end of October, the China Steel Price Index (CSPI) was 121.72 points, up 0.08 points from September, an increase of 0.07%, showing a narrow range of fluctuations. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 50.2% in October, down 0.6% from the previous month, with the production index and the new order index dropping by 1.0 and 1.2 percentage points respectively. It is expected that the price of iron ore will not continue to rise in the later period and will fluctuate slightly.


The researcher told the China Securities Journal that in October, due to the fluctuation of raw material prices, the cost support for the later steel prices gradually increased; the steel social inventories rose first and then fell, especially the building materials inventory pressure decreased; and the heating in mid-November The seasonal production will be increased, and the release of steel production capacity will be restrained; however, due to the winter in the north, demand will shrink and supply and demand will be improved. It is expected that the steel market will show a high level of shocks in November.