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China's August Official Manufacturing PMI 51.3 For 25 Consecutive Months Above The Dry Line
- Sep 03, 2018 -

China's official manufacturing PMI of 51.3 in August was expected to be 51, with a previous value of 51.2.


According to the statistics of the Bureau of Statistics, in August 2018, the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 51.3%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the overall manufacturing industry maintained a stable expansion.


In terms of enterprise scale, the PMI of large enterprises was 52.1%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month and continued to be higher than the critical point; the medium-sized enterprise PMI was 50.4%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month and rising above the critical point; small business PMI It was 50.0%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month and was at the critical point.


From the classification index, among the five sub-indices that constitute the manufacturing PMI, the production index and the new order index are above the critical point, and the raw material inventory index, the employee index and the supplier delivery time index are below the critical point.


The production index was 53.3%, which was 0.3 percentage points higher than the previous month and continued to be above the critical point, indicating that manufacturing production continued to expand.


The new order index was 52.2%, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, above the critical point, indicating a slight slowdown in manufacturing market demand growth.


The raw material inventory index was 48.7%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month and continued to be below the critical point, indicating that the main raw material inventory of the manufacturing industry decreased.


The employee index was 49.4%, which was 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous month. It rose for two consecutive months and remained below the critical point, indicating that the decline in the number of manufacturing enterprises continued to narrow.


The supplier's delivery time index was 49.6%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month and falling below the critical point, indicating that the delivery time of manufacturing raw material suppliers has slowed down compared with the previous month.


In August 2018, China's non-manufacturing business activity index was 54.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall pace of non-manufacturing expansion has accelerated.


In terms of industries, the service industry business activity index was 53.4%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the service industry growth rate has accelerated. From the perspective of industry categories, the business activity index of retail, railway transportation, air transportation, telecommunications, broadcasting and satellite transmission services, Internet software information technology services, and monetary and financial services are all located in the higher economic range of 56.0%. Business activities are more active. The business activity index of the postal industry, capital market services, insurance industry, real estate industry and other industries is below the critical point, and the total business volume has declined. The construction industry business activity index was 59.0%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. The construction industry continued to maintain rapid growth, but the expansion rate slowed down.


The new order index was 50.6%, which was 0.4 percentage points lower than the previous month and still above the critical point, indicating that the growth rate of non-manufacturing market demand has slowed down. In terms of industries, the service industry's new order index was 50.7%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. The construction industry's new orders index was 49.6%, down 6.8 percentage points from the previous month and falling below the critical point.


The input price index was 54.3%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month and above the critical point, indicating that the overall level of input prices of non-manufacturing enterprises used in business activities continued to rise. In terms of industries, the service industry input price index was 52.9%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The construction industry input price index was 62.1%, up 4.3 percentage points from the previous month.


The sales price index was 50.9%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month and still above the critical point, indicating that the overall level of non-manufacturing sales prices continued to rise, but the gains narrowed. In terms of industries, the service industry sales price index was 50.3%, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous month. The construction industry sales price index was 54.0%, which was the same as last month.


The employee index was 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and was above the critical point for two consecutive months, indicating that the employment of non-manufacturing enterprises has increased. In terms of industries, the service industry employee index was 49.7%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. The construction industry employee index was 54.3%, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous month.


The expected activity index of business activities was 61.4%, up 1.2 percentage points from the previous month. It was continuously in the high economic range, indicating that non-manufacturing enterprises continue to be optimistic about market development expectations. In terms of industries, the service industry's business activity expectation index was 60.6%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month. The construction industry business activity expectation index was 65.8%, up 1.7 percentage points from the previous month.


In August 2018, China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index and non-manufacturing business activity index rose slightly in the expansion range.


On August 31, 2018, the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Research Center and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the China Purchasing Managers Index. In this regard, Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician of the Service Industry Research Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, explained.


First, the manufacturing purchasing managers index rose slightly


In August, the manufacturing PMI was 51.3%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month and unchanged from the annual average. Since the beginning of this year, except for the Spring Festival, the index has been operating within the 51.0%-52.0% boom period, and the overall manufacturing industry has maintained a steady expansion. The main features of this month: First, production continues to expand, and market demand is generally stable. The production index was 53.3%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, higher than the annual average of 0.2 percentage points; the new order index was 52.2%, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. Driven by the acceleration of production activities, the company's willingness to purchase increased, with a purchase volume index of 51.8%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. Second, the development momentum of high-tech manufacturing industry is constantly accumulating and exerting strength. The high-tech manufacturing PMI was 54.3%, up 1.7 and 2.4 percentage points year-on-year. Among them, the PMI of pharmaceutical manufacturing, special equipment manufacturing, computer communication electronic equipment manufacturing and other industries is significantly higher than the overall level of manufacturing, and the production index and new order index of these industries are all in the higher economic range of 55.0%. Third, the price index rose to a recent high. This month, affected by factors such as the rebound in the prices of important production materials in the circulation sector, the main raw material purchase price index and ex-factory price index increased by 4.4 and 3.8 percentage points respectively from the previous month, which was 58.7% and 54.3%. Among them, the purchase price index of major raw materials in black, chemical, textile, metal products and other industries is at a high operating range of 60.0% or more. Fourth, the level of prosperity of small and medium-sized enterprises has increased. The PMI of large enterprises was 52.1%, although it was 0.3 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, but it was still 0.8 percentage points higher than the overall manufacturing industry. It is still the main driving force behind the growth of the manufacturing industry. The PMI of small and medium-sized enterprises was 50.4% and 50.0%, which were 0.5 and 0.7 percentage points higher than the previous month, respectively, both higher than the annual average. Fifth, due to factors such as the warming of international trade frictions and the uncertainty of the external environment, the import and export sentiment has declined. The new export order index and import index were 49.4% and 49.1%, respectively, lower than 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points last month. However, the import and export of high-tech manufacturing continued to maintain its expansion. The new export orders index and import index were 53.9% and 54.3%, respectively, up 0.9 and 3.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, up 1.5 and 2.6 percentage points year-on-year.


According to the survey results, the proportion of enterprises that reflected the high logistics costs and the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate on production and operation this month was 27.7% and 18.3%, both of which increased from the previous month.


Second, the non-manufacturing business activity index rebounded slightly


In August, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 54.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, up from 0.8 percentage points in the same period of last year, indicating that the overall expansion of non-manufacturing industry has accelerated.


The service industry maintained steady and rapid growth. The service industry business activity index was 53.4%, up 0.4 and 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, respectively, and the service industry growth rate has accelerated. Among the 20 industries surveyed, the business activity index of 14 industries is in the expansion range. This month is the peak season for summer consumption. The business activity index of retail, rail transport, air transport, telecommunications, Internet software, tourism and other related industries are all located in the higher economic range of 56.0%, and the business activities are more active. The business activity index of securities, insurance, logistics and other industries is below the critical point, and the total business volume has declined. In terms of market demand and expectations, the new order index and business activity expectation index were 50.7% and 60.6%, respectively, up 0.6 and 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, both higher than the annual average of 0.2 percentage points, and the market demand for the service industry was further released. The market is expected to continue to improve.


The construction industry has declined. The recent adverse weather such as high temperature and typhoon rain has brought certain impacts on the outdoor operation of the construction industry. The business activity index for this month was 59.0%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. It is still in the higher economic range, and the construction industry continues to maintain rapid growth. However, the pace of expansion has slowed down. From the perspective of labor demand and market expectation, the construction industry employee index and business activity expectation index were 54.3% and 65.8%, respectively, up 0.8 and 1.7 percentage points from the previous month, of which the employee index rose for three consecutive months, construction industry employment Continued growth, business confidence in the future market continues to increase.


Third, the comprehensive PMI output index has rebounded


In August, the comprehensive PMI output index was 53.8%, which was higher than the previous month and the same period last year by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points, indicating that the overall expansion of production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises has accelerated. Among them, the manufacturing production index and the non-manufacturing business activity index, which constitute the comprehensive PMI output index, were 53.3% and 54.2%, respectively, both of which showed a slight increase.