"The Chinese side has confirmed that it has received an invitation from the US" - US Finance Minister Mnuchin, who was first reported by The Wall Street Journal, has sent an invitation to the Chinese delegation to hold a new round of consultations on economic and trade issues, and China’s diplomacy on the 13th. Confirmation by the Ministry and Ministry of Commerce spokesperson. The spokesman said that the two sides are communicating on the relevant details. "China welcomes this." The tax collection list of 200 billion US dollars of goods has not come, and a new round of Sino-US trade negotiations has to begin. Such a dramatic plot change has made the outside world a bit "invisible." Obviously, Washington’s “positive stance” includes the pressure of the mid-term elections, the Republican ballots, and various groups in the United States who want to “bring their troops” with China. However, Kudlow, the director of the White House National Economic Council, who was still rushing to render the "China's economic collapse theory" last month, even told the media that "most of us think that negotiations are better than not talking" is somewhat surprising. The news that China and the United States may reopen trade talks on the 12th, the US stocks rose, showing the urgent desire of US investors to stop the trade war with China.
"Serious negotiations are about to begin"
The US "Wall Street Journal" quoted people familiar with the matter on the 12th, saying that US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said this week to the Chinese delegation headed by Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, and proposed another meeting to discuss bilateral trade issues. The US proposes to discuss in the next few weeks and asks the Chinese side to send a ministerial delegation to the talks. The venue may be in Washington or Beijing. Bloomberg reported that after the news was released, the US stock market began to rise on the 12th due to expectations that it might ease Sino-US trade tensions.
"Nihon Keizai Shimbun" said on the 13th that the Chinese securityist Mnuchin said that the US-China trade war will have a negative impact on the economy, so the dialogue with China has always taken a positive forward posture. Surprisingly, Kudlow, a Chinese hawk in the Trump administration, also believes that such communication is a "good thing." Kudlow told the media on the 12th: "Most of us think that negotiations are better than not talking. I think the Chinese government is willing to negotiate." He also said: "It can be said that communication has reached a level." In August, Kudlow used to A cabinet meeting called "China's economy is very bad" "China's retail sales and business investment are collapsing."
The Financial Times said on the 13th that the United States is trying to arrange negotiations with China in order to ease the escalating trade war before Trump threatens to follow up on another $200 billion in tariffs on Chinese exports to the United States. Before the mid-term elections in November, tariffs had become an electoral issue in the agricultural state of the United States, and the Republican Party was trying to prevent the Democratic Party from retaking the House of Representatives.
"This is a good sign!", Germany's "Der Spiegel" magazine said on the 13th that the tough Washington government has taken the initiative to call Beijing and want to talk to China. There seems to be hope for reconciliation in the US-China trade dispute. The move by the US to restart negotiations was welcomed by the American business community. The US Chamber of Commerce's director of international affairs, Boomer, said that even if a meeting is unlikely to produce concrete results, it is "a step in the right direction." US trade expert Alden said that the friendly gesture of the US to China may mark a turning point. He said: "The threat has escalated in the past few months, and the two sides have not conducted any real negotiations. Now serious negotiations are about to begin."
A spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Commerce said at a regular press conference on Thursday that the Sino-US economic and trade consultation team has been maintaining various forms of communication recently. "The Chinese side believes that the escalation of trade conflicts is not in the interest of either party."
"Give another chance to Beijing"?
The Wall Street Journal explained why the US took the initiative to propose negotiations to China. This is to "give Beijing a chance" before the US announces a new tariff on China's $200 billion imported products. The Voice of America said on the 13th that it is still unclear whether the government’s proposed trade negotiations with China are related to the opposition of some groups in the United States to the imposition of tariffs. During the public appraisal of tariffs on Chinese goods worth 200 billion U.S. dollars, the United States The Trade Representative Office received nearly 6,000 comments.
In fact, Trump is facing increasing political pressure to ease trade disputes before the mid-term elections in November. Trump and some Republican lawmakers who are thought to be defeated in the midterm elections are increasingly facing pressure from commercial and agricultural groups that oppose tariff increases and urge "outside the war" with China. Retailers have further warned that the addition of more tariffs, especially the inclusion of consumer products in the taxation, may not be conducive to the supply of goods at the end of the holiday shopping season.
Walters, a policy analyst at the Washington Heritage Foundation, said: "We are entering the fourth quarter of this year, usually when the US imports from China will increase. If the president decides to impose tariffs on all products from China, American consumers will begin to be more direct. Feel the price of a trade war."
The Los Angeles Times said on the 13th that Trump’s trade war has actually caused great pain to American companies. According to a survey conducted by the American Chamber of Commerce in Beijing and Shanghai, more than 60% of US companies operating in China say that the US-China tariff on 50 billion US dollars of goods has made their business worse than the previous one. The company's profits have fallen by more than 10%.
The US "Weekly" magazine website said on the 13th that Trump is discovering that the trade war is difficult to win. It’s not that he doesn’t work hard: the $50 billion, $200 billion, and $267 billion in tariffs have either started or are on the line. In theory, these tariffs will bring more employment and output to the United States: if American consumers cannot buy cheap foreign goods, their demand for domestic products will increase. In fact, this is not the case. Ford has not responded to Trump’s call and returned to the United States for production because it does not make money.
Jin Canrong, deputy dean of the School of International Studies at Renmin University of China, told the Global Times that although Trump and his team wanted to fight trade, the corporate world resisted so much that he could not ignore civil opposition. "If you ask for public opinions, it’s just If you go through the game, you have to pay a political price. He is very clear about this."
"Time is on the Chinese side"
Hong Kong's "South China Morning Post" said that on the issue of trade wars, "time is on the side of China." Although the United States has been more aggressive in the trade war, two former Chinese officials said that the ultimate winner will be China. This reflects the current mainstream view of China. Wei Jianguo, former deputy minister of the Ministry of Commerce, said that China’s annual sales to Africa will exceed 500 billion U.S. dollars in five years, “can make the African continent become a bigger market than the United States”. He said that China must be prepared for a long time, and the United States will not last long, and the trade war will not lower China's position in the global manufacturing value chain. Chen Wenling, former director of the Comprehensive Research Office of the State Council, said that Trump’s bullying would not undermine China’s rise: “From a long historical cycle, time is on the Chinese side. China stands on a moral high ground.”
"Trump's trade punishment is going in the opposite direction." Germany's "World News" said on the 13th that as of July this year, the US trade deficit with China has increased by 8%. The trade war also affects the status of the dollar. European Commission President Juncker suggested on Wednesday that the euro will play a more important role in the global settlement business. Russian President Vladimir Putin also said on Tuesday that Russia and China plan to use more of their currencies in bilateral trade. About 14% of China's foreign crude oil trade is settled in RMB, and Beijing is seeking to get rid of its dependence on the US dollar.
The Austrian "News" said that although experts predict that the trade war will reduce China's economic growth rate by 0.5 percentage points this year, the Chinese government's 6.5% growth target for this year is still realistic. The overall transformation trend of China's economy from export-oriented to domestic demand is still continuing. The income of the Chinese is rising, and the number of the middle class is also rising, which can reduce dependence on the United States.
Is there a consensus within the US government?
American public opinion also pointed out that don't expect too much from this trade negotiation invitation. Wilson, the head of the Asia-Pacific region of the US Information Technology Industry Council, said that there is still a lack of consensus within the US government. The US Trade Representative Office, the Treasury and the Commerce Department have different goals and strategies: "I have succeeded in the negotiations. Not optimistic, but talking is better than not talking."
The Financial Times said on the 13th that it is still unclear whether the Trump administration has unified its new strategy toward China. US Trade Representative Wright Heze and White House National Trade Commission Director Navarro’s position on China is much stronger than Mnuchin. After the high-level negotiations between China and the United States in May, Mnuchin’s efforts to reach a compromise were blocked by these hardliners. Singapore’s Lianhe Zaobao said on the 13th that Chinese and American officials have held four formal talks, but so far, efforts to end the trade war have ended without results.
Jin Canrong told the Global Times that from 200 billion to 267 billion, and now they want to negotiate, Trump's series of actions are not contradictory. His current situation is to ride the tiger, so he first put a political gesture to talk about it, not to rule out his abacus may also be: "I don't know if there is reason to continue to fight the trade."